The foundations for Russia’s disintegration could be laid today

Arbak Khachatryan urges efforts to be concentrated on using the favourable regional situation to Armenia’s advantage.

— Iranian President Hassan Rouhani recently said that he intends to reach agreement with the international community on nuclear energy within 3–6 months. In an interview with the Washington Post, Iran’s president said that resolving the nuclear energy issue could become the starting point for normalising relations between Iran and the United States. According to him, his country is ready to work with maximum transparency to prove to the international community that developing nuclear energy serves peaceful purposes. How might the change in Iran’s position affect the resolution of the Syrian crisis, and what regional developments could it bring?

— Recent developments in Syria took such a turn that it seemed a third world war was beginning. But for decades, while Iran opposed the United States, the forces through which Iran fought the United States were based in Syria, and a likely strike against Syria, actually directed against Iran, was already foreseeable ten years ago. Under Iran’s previous president, policy was simply conducted as though he were acting against himself: a strike against Iran, especially if there were also suspicions of nuclear weapons, could have brought about a major war that would have utterly destroyed the world’s already devastated economy. But Iran understood very well that after a possible US strike it would be unable to escape the resulting chaos, as happened in Libya, Egypt, Iraq…

It is very difficult to break the ice of many years, but the “messages” sent to the United States and Israel offer an opportunity for cooperation, and there is a way to achieve it. Yet this poses a great danger to Russia, because the chaos created in the region brought Russia out of the difficult economic situation that had deepened since the Yeltsin era, through rising gas and oil prices. If conditions in the Middle Eastern countries settle down, oil and gas prices will fall many times over. Incidentally, the foundations for the USSR’s collapse during Ronald Reagan’s presidency began with precisely a fall in oil prices.

It cannot be ruled out that this scenario may already begin to operate automatically, particularly since Russia’s economy is not in such good shape now; the flood has made its situation even worse. In these circumstances, who can demonstrate, and provide legal grounds showing, that the Customs Union has brought these countries any benefit?

— Various Russian officials have repeatedly said so. Recently, in an exclusive interview with Aravot, Russian presidential adviser Sergey Glazyev also said that trade between the Customs Union members Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan had doubled over the past two years.

— I am glad that Mr Glazyev has such figures; he is a prominent economist. But the facts we can see are that when relations between Russia and Belarus cool even a little, Belarusian milk and other food products immediately become bad, and borders close. Can an economic grouping function in such circumstances?

— And what will Turkey’s position be when Iran begins to “work” with both the United States and Israel?

— Yes, it is interesting whether Iran will then supply Turkey with oil, what position China will take, and so on. These are questions connected with developments across the region. In effect, Turkey’s strategic direction could change depending on Iran’s two steps and on what a change in its position would bring…

It is sad, but after the ceasefire in the Karabakh war, when Armenia was foremost in the region, it still failed to take steps that would have given our country opportunities for sustenance and development. It is time to understand that we will achieve nothing by intimidation and should not repeat past mistakes. I see one direction for Armenia’s development: developing schools of ideological thought and diplomacy. Enough complaining; that is not a path forward. The only way to bring Armenia out of this situation is sincerity: we must speak sincerely about everything we see. We must think about how to use a favourable alignment of circumstances in the region to bring our country out of this situation. We also have a powerful diaspora. That is an important factor. But we should never pin our hopes on any president’s personal connections. That leads to ruin, as it has until now.

— In this situation, with Armenia’s president having preferred the Russian direction, what awaits our country?

— No one yet knows what conditions will emerge in the countries around us. Which grouping will Georgia join—Europe or Russia? But even that one route will not save us, and it is nothing compared with the economic strength Azerbaijan is gaining. If Russia’s economy is sinking, but Armenia has a favourable route through Georgia to Russia, is that route enough for us to take strategic steps against Azerbaijan, when Azerbaijan works with European countries, Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and other countries?

If we have no strategic foundation and no international economic arena, what are we to struggle with? Especially when even such discussions are absent. Relations for a state cannot be built on personal relationships. That is precisely what I fear when I see the steps being taken against Ukraine and Belarus. They still have a voice and can turn around, but what will happen to Armenia if it joins the Customs Union and suddenly decides to take an independent step? We still do not see many things, but there is the Karabakh question and the question of the buffer zones… (Incidentally, I am accused of having called those territories captured territories, but for the world, capturing is better than liberating, because force is decisive.)

In such circumstances, fighting for those lands is very difficult. Two or three shopping centres have been established in both Russia and Armenia without paying taxes, and for that reason the president leaves those people alone, because they take some money to Karabakh, even though that force will be unable to do anything at the decisive moment.

Interview by NELLI GRIGORYAN

Aravot daily newspaper